Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island: Down to

Warning: Spoilers.

After hearing Boston Rob talk about who he wants to bring to the finals with him, a thought struck me. Can anyone beat Rob?  At this point, I'm not even sure it matters who Rob brings with him to the final three.

Let's consider what we know.  Smart Guy, Bitch Face, and Old Guy are on the jury.  Or David, Julie, and Steve if you prefer.  I think that there is no way Julie votes for Rob regardless of who he's up against.  She's going to vote for the poorest sucker up there using the worst justification for a vote, who needs it most.  David has been in awe of Rob this whole game, plus he's a smart guy who respects the strategy of the game.  I think that he's a guaranteed vote for Rob. 

That leaves Steve.  We don't know much about Steve other than that he's old and almost died like eleven times out there on the show.  He's a crafty player so there is some respect for strategy there, but I'm not so sure he'd be a shoo-in to vote for Rob.  However, I think that as long as Matt, Mike, or Grant aren't sitting next to Rob at the finals, his vote is going towards Rob as well.

Personally I think Rob's best chance to win is to be sitting next to Natalie and Ashley who have done absolutely nothing the whole game.  So much nothing, they can't even pull a Natalie White "nothing was part of my strategy" card.  I think those votes would line up as follows.

David - Rob
Julie - Natalie
Steve - Rob
Ralph - Unsure

Andrea - Rob
Phillip - Rob
Grant - Rob
Mike - Unsure
Matt - Jesus

Rob's worst chance would probably be up against one of Matt/Mike, and Grant, but even then I'm not so sure a strong jury showing wouldn't put Rob over the top again.  What can Grant even say other than that he had a hand in all of Rob's decisions (which everyone knows isn't remotely true anyways).  I think those votes would break down as follows:

David - Rob
Julie -Matt
Steve -Grant
Ralph - Matt/Mike
Andrea - Matt/Mike

Phillip - Rob

Ashley - Rob

Natalie - Rob

Matt/Mike -Matt/Mike

Even with the worst case scenario, I think Mariano pulls a tie.  I'm not sure anyone outside of China's Todd Herzog has played a game of Survivor this good.

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